Why should we study Indo- Pak relations?
As Carol Moseley Braun puts it rightly " there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, just permanent interests".
The geo-political scenario witnesses volumetric shifts within decades. These transformations are constituted on the bedrock of national interests and domestic politics. Geo-strategic locations, marine economy, international trade, bilateral alliances and historical manifestations come in to play a deciding role in defining these interests in a manner which is not accountable to other nation's gains or losses.
Living in an age where these interests alter quite rapidly casting substantial impact on the foreign policies of respective countries, make it compulsory for everyone those who vest their interests in the international scenario to understand how these changes affect the forthcoming policies. The current paper is going to have a detailed look at the two major countries which have been successful in remaining in highlights since the very inception of sovereignty in both the countries and the relevance it holds in the contemporary era is absolutely spectacular. Only when we dive deep into international relations of both the countries, then we will be in an accurate position to predict partially the possible future of the nations and subsequently its relationship.
To ease the work of analysing the ties critically, the paper is strategically and systematically divided into phases.
Phases of relationships:
Phase I (1947-1964): In the context of the 1st Indo-Pak War
The bitter memories of religious riots, mass migration and lost lives forms the very foundation of making of both the Nations. Millions of families from East and West Pakistan penetrated into Indian mainland and an equal number of Muslims migrated from India to West and East Pakistan thus tearing apart people who hitherto lived together peacefully and traditionally. The formation of the Hindu majority India and Muslim majority Pakistan is the first result of this bitter segmentation. This element of "majority" needs to be kept in mind throughout while reading this article to understand the paradigms of changing socio-political standards in both countries.
Immediately after the partition of 1947 both India and Pakistan got involved in the first-ever war in October 1947 over Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan motivated "Lashkars" invaded J&K to occupy it forcefully. To gain Indian military support, the then maharaja of Kashmir signed the instrument of accession with India thus legally acceding Jammu and Kashmir territory to the Indian union. However this accession was not unconditional, it incorporated in India on the agreement to hold a referendum in the valley once peace is restored (something that never happened). The UN was successful in declaring a ceasefire in the war still this invasion is one of its own kind in vandalising the very fresh start between the two immediate neighbours and seeds of severe resentment were sown in these initial years itself. Pakistan claimed one-third of Kashmir which it denotes as "Azad Kashmir", both the countries use the word "occupied territory" to denote each other annexed areas. Tensions pertained until 1954 when the accession of Kashmir to India was finally rectified by the state's constituent assembly and then in 1957 Jammu and Kashmir approved a separate constitution and became formally and officially a part of India. In 1960, a treaty between India and Pakistan over Indus river water was signed brokered by the World Bank and is the only international treaty that exists between the two nations.
In 1963, Prime Ministers of both the nations agreed to meet for talks, the details of the same are yet not declassified in the public domain. In 1964, Pakistan went to its extreme capacity and referred the question of Kashmir in the United Nations Security Council which further deteriorate the two Nation's relations. This was the forecast of a heavy tension that was to come i.e.the second war in 1965.
Phase II (1965-1970): In the context of the 2nd Indo-Pak war
It was quite evident through the activities that were going on pre-1965, which prepared a battleground for both the countries to rustle with each other. The conflict began following Pakistan's Operation Gibraltar, which was designed to infiltrate forces into Jammu and Kashmir to precipitate an insurgency against Indian rule. This came in the form of skirmishes in April and September 1965, which further slackened the already dent relations. Finally, this came to an end in 1966 with the signing of the Tashkent agreement between Prime Ministers of both the nations and soldiers returning to their original position to maintain peace. Agreements to restore economic and diplomatic relations were signed too.
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Looking at this short span of five years between 1965 to 1970, we realised that though on an international level, India and Pakistan "pretended" to agree upon various compromises, virtually the damage was done. The two nations turned against each other on such issues as border and land disputes. The changing politics in India as well as in Pakistan too shaped this relationship. Though India was not so much harmed by the Pakistani aggression of 1965, it surely indicated that Pakistan has now started taking chances while India was busy in a war with China in 1962.
Phase III (1971-1999): In the context of Bangladeshi War
The context and content of the 1971 war were completely different. However, the ground for the 1971 war was prepared in the decades proceeding to 1970. The crisis going on in the domestic politics of East Pakistan and a greater interference of West Pakistan into its administration led to a war which resulted into carvation of a new territory which we call today as Bangladesh.. How does India come into it? Has India interfered in the politics of foreign countries in 1970? Well, the answer is No. In 1970 the Awami League-led by Mujib-ur-Rahman won the elections in East Pakistan and in West Pakistan, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto turned out victorious. However, west Pakistan was not ready to accept the demand of East Pakistan on making the Bengali language as their first language and denied them more satisfactory political representation in Pakistan administration. This led to Civil war within Pakistan and around 80 lakh refugees from East Pakistan migrated to India to whom India gave moral support. This is when India entered into the picture. Pakistan blames India for supporting anti-Pakistan elements in Indian territory however India refuted all such allegations. In 1971, India under Indira Gandhi decided to step in by helping East Pakistan to create its own country. This led to a bitter relationship between the two countries. In 1972 Shimla agreement was signed which declared the cease-fire line as LOC( line of control). Following these events, in 1974 India conducted a nuclear test in Pokhran(Rajasthan) which was an underground operation and was code-named "Smiling Buddha". However immediately after that Pakistan also conducted its nuclear weapons tests bringing both the countries to a hot platform. This, but of course, caused a need to share information on these nuclear devices, so that both the countries can contribute to confidence-building. This resulted in an agreement which was signed on nuclear weapons in 1988 to share the information. Things went neutral until 1989 when India witnessed an armed resistance to Indian rule in Kashmir where political leaders claimed that the 1987 elections of the state were rigged and therefore should be revoked. Pakistan gave moral and diplomatic support to the movement in the resistance and therefore India accused Pakistan of cross-border terrorism. This further de-escalated the relations between the two countries. In 1991, there was an agreement on the information related to military, troops, etc and also an agreement was reached to have no air space violations into each other's territory. Following this, in 1992 a joint declaration was signed to rectify no use of chemical weapons as these are the most deadly weapons to be used. Despite all such efforts, in 1996 there was a series of clashes between the two countries which was preparing the ground for the 1999 Kargil war. However, a meeting was held and the tensions slackened. In 1998 India conducted 5 nuclear tests in Pokhran and Pakistan conducted 6 nuclear tests in Chagai Hills, resulting in international sanctions on both the countries. Tensions seem to soothe in 1999 when the then Prime Minister of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee met Nawaz Sharif, the then Prime Minister of Pakistan through a bus (symbolic) and signed the Lahore declaration and also undertook confidence-building measures but this was not the sweet end, because in May 1999 Kargil war broke out and air and ground strikes were carried out by India later in October 1999. While at the same time, Pervez Musharraf led a coup and overthrew Nawaz Sharif's government in Pakistan.
Phase IV (2000-2004): Series of conflict
A period of warm relations came to an end when in 2001 there was an attack on Kashmiri assembly killing 38 people. In July 2001, Pervez Musharraf and Vajpayee re-met for a 2 days summit at Agra but the talks went in vain and no agreement was reached.
In December 2001, there was an armed attack on Indian parliament killing 14 people, blame of which was put on Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e- Mohammed, who later also accepted their actions. This was followed by Pakistani military raiding along the line of control and the stand-off ended in 2002. This is a clear scene how India and Pakistan have been engaged in military actions since independence and this makes Pakistani army much more relevant in the context of Indo- Pakistan relationship than any elected government in Pakistan and thus the army comes in to play an important role while deciding peace relations between the two countries.
In 2003 the United Nations general assembly meeting proposed an agreement to cool down the tensions between the two and therefore a ceasefire on LOC was declared. The 12th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation(SAARC) summit in 2004 opened up a new stage for dialogues where Vajpayee and Musharraf talked out their differences. Later that year, the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan also met and the beginning of the composite dialogue process and bilateral meetings began.
Phase V (2005- 2013): the UPA style
Alternatively, skirmishes and tensions prevailed in the subcontinent along with meetings and agreements. Keeping in mind the relations of both the countries in 2006, India re-deployed 5000 troops from Jammu and Kashmir and in the same year, no agreement on withdrawing forces from the Siachen glacier was reached. Then came the incident which was the most prolific one and played a very crucial role in destroying the relations of both the countries. In 2007, the Samjhauta Express was bombed and 58 people were killed in the catastrophe. It has been alleged as an activity from the Pakistani side. Gauging at the gravity of the issue, both the nations were ready to talk. Such events didn't prevent the two nations from having the fifth round of talks on the review of nuclear and ballistic missile-related agreements and also the second round of joint anti-terrorism mechanism. Situations seem to return back to normalcy in 2008 when a gas pipeline project named TAPI( Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) was laid out. Some confidence-building measures were also taken specifically in the context of Kashmir, for instance, triple entry for trade was permitted with restrictions. An attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul killed 58 people and the blame was put on the ISI of Pakistan.
The then President of Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari and India's then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh opened up trade routes in each other's territory. Cross-LOC trade in 21 items commenced in the same year. Then came the day that almost blacked out the bleak future of the two nations. 26 November 2008 when Bombay attacks killed 166 people and injured many more, the responsibility of which was later taken by Lashkar-e-Taiba resulting in India breaking off its ties with Pakistan. Just one year later in 2009 Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and Manmohan Singh met at the sidelines of a non-alignment movement summit in Egypt for future talks. However, there was no resumption of the composite dialogue process in this context. In the same year, Manmohan Singh and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari met on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Russia. In August, India gave evidence of Lashkar-e-Taiba engagement in the Bombay blasts of 2008 and asked Pakistan to prosecute Hafiz Muhammad Saeed which was refused to India. The beginning of 2010 was a bitter one for both the countries as there was an exchange fire across LOC and tensions rose, but in the very next month foreign secretaries met in New Delhi and later in July in Islamabad. Ajmal Kasab the only alive terrorist arrested in the Bombay attacks was sentenced to death in May 2010.
2011 was yet another platform for exchanging International rosaries as foreign secretaries of both the countries met in Thimphu (Bhutan) and agreed to resume peace talks on all the issues including Kashmir. However, no productive outcome was seen on the ground.
In 2012 India executed Kasab. In 2013, traded accusations of violating ceasefire in Kashmir came to surface. Pakistan accused India of a cross-border raid that killed a soldier and India charged Pakistan for shelling. In 2013, both the Prime Ministers met in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations general assembly and agreed to end tensions. In February India and Pakistan agreed to release trucks held in their respective territories but such types of agreements have been made in past and proved to be nothing but an activity in futile.
Phase VI (2014-2020): the NDA style
2014 was a very important year for both the Nations because of the coming in power of an NDA leader in India. This experiment was quite new for both the nations, though in Vajpayee, we've already seen the position and stance of BJP led NDA towards Pakistan, however this time there was a magnanimous change in the top leadership in NDA. In May 2014 Pakistan army chief General Raheel Sharif called Kashmir a "Jugular vein" of Pakistan and propagated it for knowing the wishes and aspirations of Kashmiris better than India.
Subsequently, Pakistan released 151 Indian fishermen from its prisons. The first-ever talk after 2014 between India and Pakistan took place in New Delhi between Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif which began a new era of bilateral relations. In 2015, Modi made a surprise visit to eastern Lahore on the occasion of Nawaz Sharif's birthday.
However, the relationship started to de-escalate at the beginning of 2016. The Pathankot attack which killed 7 Indian soldiers shattered the hopes of normalising relations between the two countries. Later in the year, in September, Uri attack took place which killed 18 Indian soldiers. But this time the reaction was different, India carried out surgical strikes in Pakistan occupied Kashmir, seven Indian soldiers were killed in yet another terrorist attack in November. The final blow came in 2019 with Pulwama attack in reaction to which pre-emptive airstrikes were launched on Jaish-e-Mohammed which "claimed" to kill a lot many terrorists.
Conclusion: A critical analysis
The very complicated traces of relationships between the two nuclear-armed nations make it all more difficult to analyse whether the ties are cordial or hostile at a given point of time. This is primarily because, at the same point of time, conflicts and agreements were going hand in hand.
After having four direct military confrontations with India, Pakistan realised that this activity might turn into a futile one. Therefore, Pakistan decided to engage in a proxy war with India where it used terrorism as a tool against the Indian republic. These proxy wars primarily served 2 goals for Pakistan- one to keep its military engaged in some or the other confrontations with India and two in making Pakistani military one of the quintessential elements in any talk that India and Pakistan would arrive at in future in maintaining peace and cordial relations.
The 2001 parliament attack and 2008 Bombay attacks were some of the examples in which no military attack was expected from the Indian side, however, after the Pulwama and Uri attack, the balakot airstrikes and the surgical strikes were evident to witness in the subcontinent. One of the major questions that arise while looking at the bilateral dispensation is why would Pakistan constantly engage in an environment of animosity with India? Well, this can be answered when we look at Pakistan's view of looking at India. According to Pakistan, it has an existential threat from India and it believes that India will never give recognition to Pakistan and will prevent its rise in South Asia. Another reason would be the apprehension over Jammu and Kashmir where it believes that the territory would subsequently be incorporated in India with due International acceptance. The last and the least popular reason would be to take revenge of all the past defeats that Pakistani army faced. When we talk about India-Pakistan relationship we need to look at two fronts of Pakistan one on the administrative front and second on the military front. This is widely believed that there is no broad acceptance in the Pakistani military to repair the destroyed relations between the two Nations. Conflicts like border tensions, water disputes, etc still exist in the international scenario of ties between India and Pakistan.
Way ahead:
Looking at a long history of the bitter relationship between the two nations, one may conveniently conclude that the situations will fail to return to normalcy at least in the near future. Though this takeaway seems to be quite negative and hopeless, however, it is not without facts. The kinds and degrees of conflicts that the countries have been involved in do make us feel that way, but a positive solution can be derived after keeping aside such differences and working rigorously in the same direction of improving coordination. These solutions may include mutual cooperation, maintaining and sustaining people to people relations, sharing information on strategic projects, signing trade specific and more general issues related treaties, working together to curb terrorism, rectifying more and more International agreements at global platforms to prevent any other foreign element to play a role in the relations and also to carry out bilateral projects in each other's country, but most important is to keep the armies of respective nations disengaged and constant engagement of people and government of India and Pakistan.
SOURCES:
1)https://wwwaljazeeracom.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/indepth/spotlight/kashmirtheforgottenconflict/2011/06/2011615113058224115.htmlusqp=mq331AQRKAGYAZaM9POx_9rxmQGwASA%3D&_js_v=a2&_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Findepth%2Fspotlight%2Fkashmirtheforgottenconflict%2F2011%2F06%2F2011615113058224115.html
2) https://m.timesofindia.com/india/key-events-in-india-pakistan-relations-a-timeline/articleshow/60030350.cms
3)https://mobilereuterscom.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSTRE55F5R320090616amp_js_v=a3&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#aoh=15968564064881&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Farticle%2Fus-india-pakistan-relations-timeline-sb-idUSTRE55F5R320090616
WRITTEN BY POOJA RANI
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